Appropriately enough, the etymology of the word “Chaos” stems from the Greek word “khaos” – meaning a vast void or chasm, originally. It seems to be the only word that one can apply to describe the political situation stemming from the Greek government’s decision to call a referendum over the EU/IMF negotiations, just a week ago.
The plebiscite is set to run on Sunday 5th July, a bare nine days after the decision was announced. The Council of Europe has already declared that the referendum would: "fall short of international standards" given the lack of time for voters to make an informed decision and the confusing form of the question itself. A legal challenge to the vote is being heard by Greece’s highest court the Council of State currently. There has even been talk of it being postponed by Syriza…
The head of the IMF, Christine Lagarde, was quick to point out that any “deal” considered by the referendum became null and void on the 1st of July after the bailout from the IMF and Eurozone expired and Greece fell into arrears with the IMF; so even a “yes” vote would be essentially moot.
The Greek leadership is actively campaigning for a “no” vote to any deal whilst simultaneously submitting requests for a new, third bailout and, apparently, agreeing to parts of deal(s) already proposed. They are of the opinion that a “no” vote strengthens their negotiating position. The problem with this is that leaders elsewhere in the Eurozone have stated that they would view a “no” vote as a decision to leave the Euro. Tsipras and his colleagues have consistently claimed to wish to see Greece remain in the Eurozone, but this has been contradicted by their actions. According to Mr Tsipras: "If the 'Yes' vote wins the banks will open with a deal, which will not be viable, but if that is the decision of the Greek people, either from fear or from pressure, or choice, we will respect it. If the 'No' vote wins, and the 'no' is stronger, I assure you, the very next day I will be in Brussels and a deal will be signed." One is reminded of the expression that beggars can’t be choosers – if the IMF and the Eurozone were not convinced by any proposals by the Greek authorities since February (and in respect of Syriza’s original mandate), they will not capitulate in the face of a referendum “no” vote, to think that they might is surely delusional.
Greece is enduring strict financial controls and a virtual collapse of its banking system whilst its future in the Euro and as a sovereign defaulter is in the balance. The goodwill of the EU and IMF (and all international commentators such as China and the USA) stands behind the Greek people in remaining in the Euro, currently. A “no” vote would hurl the Greek nation into “chaos”. It would signal an exit from the EU and leave them with huge debts to pay with no potential means to service them. Greece doesn’t have the hard cash reserves to pay for imports (in Euros or Dollars); businesses will be reluctant to trade with a bankrupt state that has antagonised its friends in a petulant and foolish manner. Much is at stake in Sunday’s vote.