To the surprise of many, the UK election provided a clear winner rather than a hung parliament in which the government of whatever political shade needed the support of minority partners to form a stable coalition. In the end, the Conservative party had a slender majority of 12 seats and will govern alone. This means that they should be able to push through their promised legislation which will grant the British people an “in/out” referendum over Britain’s continued membership of the European Union before the end of 2017.
In the interim, the British PM will try to secure a “better deal for Britain” through negotiation with the other 27 leaders such that he can convince the public to vote in favour of continued membership. None of the mainstream parties want to see a so-called “Brexit” and even the SNP made it clear that an independent Scotland would hope to remain within the EU fold. The details of the sort of deal that Mr Cameron wishes to secure for the British people, of course, remain vague in the extreme. However, the EU, or Brussels or the European Commission have long been the Bogeyman for popular media in the UK (and in most other member states, if we are honest) and there is consequently much distrust and even animosity, so unless real progress can be seen to be delivered, Britain risks sleepwalking to the exit. In the election, the UK Independence Party (UKIP) that campaigns for a British withdrawal from the EU won 3.8 million votes, 13% of the vote.
The majority of British businesses remains in favour of continued membership of the EU. Analysts warn that uncertainty over Britain’s decision may negatively influence inwards investment which could harm UK growth and job prospects.
The first salvo of the “Brexit” battle has been fired by German banking giant Deutsche Bank which has announced that it has established a working group to investigate whether it would need to move part of its UK activities back to Germany in the event of a “Brexit”. The bank has 9000 UK-based employees, but the move is symbolic in that many other major businesses with roots elsewhere in the EU will be forced to consider such contingency plans. There have already been calls to bring the vote forward in order to alleviate the uncertainty that will surround the UK until the decision is taken, however, given the media stance over many years, it will take a lot of time and concessions from “Brussels” to convince the public that our fate and those of our European partners are inextricably linked and our best interests are served by continued membership.