The electorate of the UK will go to the poles on the 7th May and give their verdict on five years of government by the ruling Conservative party and their junior coalition partner, the Liberal Democrats. The poll is regarded as sufficiently split that neither the Conservatives nor the opposition Labour party will garner enough votes to govern alone; most polls suggest that the Liberal Democrats will be punished for broken election promises and lose many of their seats. The coalition came to power in 2010 during the Global Financial Crisis and has overseen the economic turning of the tide with the UK arguably enjoying the best growth of any democratic economy. The Conservatives are claiming the credit for the upturn in the nation’s economic fortunes, Labour claims it would have been better with them in power and the Liberal Democrats, interestingly, are claiming they have a key role in any future coalition tempering the excesses of whichever of the major parties forms the next government.
The final major economic reading on the UK economy, an initial estimate of Q1 growth by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has just been released. It is mixed news for the Conservatives, but hardly a decisive blow that Labour can use to sweep to power. According to the ONS estimate (which will be subject to two revisions as more comprehensive data becomes available), the economy expanded by 0.3% in Q1. The figure is half of the expansion seen in Q4 of 2014 and on a par with projections for Q1 growth in the Eurozone.
According to ONS, the critical service sector grew by 0.5% in Q1, but the construction sector saw a contraction of 1.6%. Most analysts expect that growth will pick up again in Q2. All of the major parties are trying to woo the electorate with promises of a housing construction boom to meet a housing shortage and, they hope, reduce rental prices by putting more housing into that market.