Saudi Arabia has insisted that OPEC will keep oil production at 30 million barrels per day no matter the cost of crude, but even the world's biggest oil exporter has a limit, the CEO of Breitling Energy told CNBC on Friday.
"I think the panic button is at $40," Chris Faulkner said. "They can say whatever they want, but at the end of the day, they can't just bleed out money forever."
With the Saudis' deficit for 2015 projected to reach $50 billion (the official figure is $39 billion) the country's leaders will face challenges in maintaining its subsidies, he said. Young people will not stand for planned wage cuts, either, he added.
Faulkner expects oil prices to rebound to the low $70s by the end of 2015, after initially sliding further into the low $50s and possibly recovering in the second quarter. According to Faulkner, with oil prices at current levels, Venezuela will likely default on its debt payments due in March and October. Faulkner sees natural gas remaining below $5 until 2020, as the supply and demand fundamentals are unlikely to change significantly.
Meanwhile, Brent crude for February delivery traded below $61 in morning trade on Friday and natural gas dipped below $3 on Friday for the first time since Sept. 24, 2012.
Natural gas futures have been hit lately and it looks like it is just the beginning of the commodity's decline. Gas got hammered Monday and was seesawing Tuesday morning, last trading at about $3.15 per million British thermal units.
Peter Amandio, president of Chicago Energies, said a supply surplus and mild weather made the market look technically very weak. He likened it to crude's initial descent.
"You have a lot of room on weekly and monthly charts to the downside and I would expect below these levels you should test at least $2.50. There is a glut of Appalachian gas right now, so without weather it's going to head to the downside," Amandio said.
While mild weather is also a bearish indicator for the commodity, he said that the forecast can always change.
"You always have to keep in mind this is the natural gas market. You are going to have a lot of shorts in this market because of how it looks technically and if any time we do get cold, you will have a quick move to the upside," Amandio said.