Gold is shining once more.
With stocks climbing to new highs and potentially drawing fresh money into the equity market, the classic gold-bug argument that the dollar will weaken and only gold can truly store value is being severely questioned. The U.S. Dollar Index is nearly at a one-year high and the CBOE Volatility Index is back at levels that discount any concern about the markets, which is another strike against safe-haven assets like gold.
However, despite all that’s happened to gold of late, the precious metal has managed to hold its own, falling only slightly below the key $1,300 per ounce level, and looking to finish August close to flat.
According to one analyst, "The resiliency in gold has been tremendous. The bears tried hard to sell it but they have not been victorious." Owning gold is back in favor now after being knocked down several times; it seems that nothing can keep it down.
Prices Pumped Up
Others believe that gold prices have been propped up by concerns emanating from Ukraine and Iraq, but that the picture otherwise looks bleaker than some think. Some financiers argue that the downside for gold could be limited, given that there are not many who are interested in shorting an asset that could zoom higher if those tense situations heat up.
Albert Ng of Aurum Options Strategies says that we “are not seeing any accumulation of longs or shorts…-maybe that's why we're not seeing large downward movement." said. He added that some producers are looking at costs of about $1,200 per ounce for gold, and that it would be difficult for gold prices to fall too much below that level.
Ng says that there are few reasons for gold to move out of its recent price range of$1,280 to $1,320. And for some analysts who are long gold futures as well as shares of gold miners, this tight price range is actually a bullish sign and that investors should anticipate a rise in gold prices.
Gold mutual fund managers have been encouraging investors to stay away from individual gold stocks or gold bullion and to play it safe by investing in gold through a mutual fund or a gold EFT. Hedge funds have raised their bets on gold prices when Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke encouraged sustained economic stimulus for the foreseeable future. By the end of the second quarter of 2014, U.S.-listed gold ETFs had recorded $20.5 billion in asset outflows, according to data from S&P Capital IQ.