The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development was established in 1961 and can trace its origins back to the administration of the Marshall plan which was put in place to rebuild Europe after World War II. The OECD employs about 2500 staff and is based in Paris. It has a membership of 34 nation states and aims to “to promote policies that will improve the economic and social well-being of people around the world.”
In its most recent press statement, OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurria sounded several notes of caution about global prospects in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis: “The recovery is real, but at a slow speed, and there may be turbulence on the horizon. There is a risk of another bout of brinkmanship in the US, and there is also a risk that tapering of asset purchases by the US Federal Reserve could bring a renewed bout of instability. The exit from non-conventional monetary policy will be challenging, but so will action to prevent another flare-up in the euro area and to ensure that Japan’s growth prospects and fiscal targets are achieved.”
OECD has adjusted its growth projections from May and now suggests that the prospects for emerging economies have softened and consequently it has downgraded its global growth projection from 3.1% to 2.7% this year. It is projecting that global growth should pick-up in 2015. The organisation has upgraded its forecast for UK growth from 0.8% to 1.4% for 2013, hitting 2.4% next year.
The OECD predicts that growth within its member states will come in at 1.2% this year, but should nearly double to 2.3% next year. It anticipates that unemployment in Europe will not fall below the 12% mark until late 2015 and points to slowing global trade, slowing direct investment flows and fixed investments as potential headwinds for the global recovery, such as it is.