By: Dr. Mike Cambpell
As the saying goes; an Englishman’s home is his castle. The British have long believed that “bricks and mortar” is the safest form of investment and has the added advantage over other investment strategies that you can actually live in it. Traditionally, mortgage companies were willing to lend three times your annual salary or three and a half times joint income for a working couple. However, that was before the major housing boom of the 1980s. That saw the “average” house price rocket from £20 000 to over £80 000 and fall back to £60 000 – leaving a good number of people with “negative equity” i.e. their home was worth less than the mortgage on it. After this blip and until the global financial crisis, home prices only moved in one direction in the UK: up.
In the UK, house price inflation is totally out of step with increases in earnings. Prior to the global financial crisis, the “average” house price peaked at £189 316. In the aftermath of the crisis that fell to £151 151, but has since recovered to £166 597 (last July). During this period, average earnings have risen to £26244 (before tax) from £5720 in 1980. Whilst the salary has risen by a factor of five since 1980, the house price has increased by a factor of seven and there are extreme regional variations. Given that interest rates are at an historic low level, it is clear that mortgage rates are also set to rise once there is a return to economic normality.
Against this backdrop, the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors says it has seen higher levels of purchaser interest in March – this is partly due to the ending of a “stamp duty” holiday on home purchases. 9% of surveyors reported rising levels of interest rather than declining levels. However, most surveyors are still reporting that the UK house price is falling. Given that there is no likelihood that UK average earnings will catch up with the house price any time soon, a gentle, gradual deflation in house prices would seem the only way to avoid a catastrophic burst in prices with all the economic woe that entails as seen in Ireland and Spain.