By: Christopher Lewis

While the Non-Farm Payroll announcement is arguably the “granddaddy of all announcements”, this month may actually have very little impact as the world is focused squarely on the G-20 summit. The meeting is normally followed by a communiqué that is closely scrutinized by traders around the world, and with the recent developments out of Greece will be especially interesting to the trading community this weekend. The announced referendum will certainly be the single biggest issue to think about, followed very closely by any help the Chinese may or may not be willing to give.

While there is no set time for the announcement, history suggests that it will come out very late in the trading session on Friday, more than likely after the Europeans and Asians have left their desks. It will certainly be after the Non-Farm Payroll announcement scheduled for 8:30 a.m. that morning.

A Look at the Facts

The report is expected to print an addition of 98,000 jobs during the month of October. The number isn’t enough to cause a net addition, as the United States needs roughly 200,000 jobs added a month to make up for immigration, young adults entering the workforce, and other factors. It was even noted by the Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke that the unemployment situation should remain fairly high over the next few years in the US during the Q&A session after the Fed’s most recent meeting this week.

With the problems coming out of Greece taking the lead, this report will more than likely be a yawner. Of course, a “shock number” could really move the market, but will the anxiety over Europe, it would have to be something rather extraordinary to create a sustained move. Traders will more than likely just choose to sit this one out, and it must be said that more often than not, the report produces very little change by the end of the session.

With this in mind, do not be surprised if the report disappoints, at least in terms of market action. While the days of news trading may have largely subsided, it appears that a new form has taken over – the “news trading” has given way to “headline trading” out of Europe. We don’t expect this to change anytime soon, and as a result have a hard time seeing how Friday will be any different.