By: Mike Campbell
As widely expected, the UK formally ended its longest recession since record keeping began in 1955 in the last quarter of 2009, figures just released reveal. The UK had languished in recession for six consecutive quarters, but managed to grow by just 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2009 which perhaps serves to underline the fragility of the recovery in the UK. The UK recorded its worst decline in GDP in 2009, falling by 4.8%. Over the course of the 18 months that the UK was in recession, the country’s output fell by 6% and public borrowing increased by an estimated £178bn. The UK was the last of the world’s major economies to emerge from recession and so, to a first approximation, the global recession could be said to have ended. However, it may still be premature to breathe a sigh of relief.
The UK return to growth was weaker than analysts had expected and has been attributed to a decline of Sterling against both the Dollar and the Euro in today’s trading.
IMF Revises Forecasts For World Growth Upwards
The IMF took a more upbeat view of the outlook for the global economy and now predicts that growth will be 3.9% rather than the 3.1% it had previously suggested. It said that growth is being led by China. The International Labour Organisation has estimated that some 212 million people around the world are out of work. Of these, 27 million lost their jobs in 2009 according to the Geneva based organisation which is a part of the UN family. ILO predicts that unemployment will stay at this level in 2010, possibly growing by an additional million people.
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