By: Mike Campbell
The Japanese economy managed its smallest decline in export figures in 14 months in November. The data shows that Japanese exports are still falling, but the year-on-year data for November showed the decline to be 6.2% which compared very favourably to the figure of 23% for October. Things are still getting worse, but the rate at which they are doing so, at least, is easing off; good news of a sort. The Japanese import figures for November were also sharply down, by 16.8%, leading to a trade surplus of $4.1bn, this tends to suggest that demand in the Japanese economy is weak. There is still much concern that the Yen is too strong; it has just come off a 14 year high against the ailing US Dollar (Japan’s major trading partner). As a nation that owes its economic strength to its exports, a strong Yen puts pressure on the affordability of Japanese goods abroad.
CBI’s Crystal Ball Predicts A Slow Recovery In The UK
The leading employer’s organisation in the UK, the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) has been gazing at its crystal ball; well it is that time of the year. The CBI is predicting that the UK economy will finally come out of recession when Q4 figures are released – a safe bet as most analysts thought it would happen in Q3. Sales in Q4 will rise due to traditional seasonal spending and the fact that VAT will rise back up to its standard levels in Q1 2010, so advantage will be taken of the lower current tax level. They think that the Bank of England will end its low interest rate policy in the spring and that by the end of the year, the cost of borrowing will have risen to 2%.
Unemployment should peak at 2.8 million (officially) and that a weak Pound will help UK exports. Oil will rise to $100 a barrel driven by demand and supply factors. They predict UK GDP will rise by 1.2% over the course of 2010, but caution that the UK recovery is fragile.
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