The European elections in Greece and France have had even the most dedicated technical traders glued to their screens, especially after the surprising victory of Francois Hollande over incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy in yesterday's first round of France's presidential race. The second round of French elections is just around the corner on May 6th, followed by the German regional contests, the Greek parliamentary election and an Irish referendum at the end of the month. At issue in each country is not just what party politics will prove triumphant, but which candidate or party's view for the future will help mold the struggling economies throughout the region. Perhaps equally important is what the voters see for the future of the Eurozone – do they wish to remain cohesive, or to change the system so dramatically that the glorious region of old will be forever changed?
Of primary consideration in Greece is whether the austerity plan should be carried out as it is now, or whether dramatic changes are in order. The issues in France are similar, with voters at this point favoring Hollande's commitment to promoting growth while relying less on austerity measures. If his alternative approach does succeed, however, voters may rejoice at the national coup, but the relations between France and Germany, built over the past few years by Sarkozy and Germany Chancellor Merkel will likely suffer significant repercussions. In that case, Merkel's own chances of reelection next year may be called into question.
On the whole, data out of the EU is glum – the EU statistics agency announced that 17 of its members cut their deficits to 4.1 percent of the economic output in 2011, down from 6.2 percent in 2012. But this good news was offset by the fact that the overall debt in the region rose to 87.2 percent of the GDP, up significantly from 85.3 percent.
Though it's too early to predict the outcomes of the elections or the status of the unified Europe, most analysts agree that the dollar will likely strengthen in the coming days and weeks, especially on the heels of such disruptive news from the Eurozone. What happens after that remains to be seen"¦