Forget China, time to move to Australia

Something really unprecidented would have to happen to get me to pack up my lovely Manhattan apartment and move out of the United States.  But it is no secret that the once super power of the 1950s to the 1990s is certainly on the decline while emerging market countries such as China, Brazil, India, and Russia are coming into their own.  I enjoy listening to investor gurus such as Jim Rogers discuss his reasoning behind why he moved himself and his family from New York to Singapore in 2007 and how it was the best decision he ever made.  I mean, as I am quite comfy sitting here and trading and enjoying an American life, aren’t my hard-earned pips in my USD account slowly losing value against most other major currencies?   Yes.  But the thought of moving to China or Brazil or Russia gives me a little shiver of uncertainty.  This week we learned just how strong Australia is, being the first of the major Central Banks to emerge from interest rate holding and actually RAISE their rates .25% to 3.25%.  Their Aussie dollar jumped in correspondence to this surprise move, ending the week above 0.9000.  I suspect the AUD may again reach for parity with the USD soon and even overtake the not-so-mighty dollar.  This would alas not be new territory, the AUD was stronger than the dollar in the 1980s.  Australia also posted an improving jobless rate to 5.7%, compared to the US’s continuing worsening in unemployment, now at 9.8%.  Times are turning quicker down under.  What, not too interested in shrimps on the barby?  How about Canada.  Canada, too, posted its second consecutive month of  improving employment data this week adding 31,000 jobs in September, bringing its unemployment down to 8.7%.  They have yet to raise their interest rates but I suspect that they will quicker than the US does.  What do these two nations have in common?  Both the AUD and the CAN dollars are commodity currencies:  Australia is closely tied to gold while Canada is tied to oil.  While commodities like these will only continue to rise in value, it is the main reason why countries that export these products will continue to grow.  Unfortunately, the US is the consumer, not the producer, and thus will likely remain in a weakening state.  Oh how fun fundamental analysis is!  Some US traders are moving their savings to Canada in order to take advantage of a stronger currency.  Australia is a good bet too.  It is not too late.  Even better:  you do not have to move to take advantage of the weakening US dollar.  Check out Everbank, you can open a savings account in several emerging market currencies without hassle or airline tickets.

All markets are connected

Today’s market action could be signaling a changing in the guard after the Federal Open Market Committee’s rate decision and accompanying statement.  It is such a perfect example of how all markets are connected in some fashion: whether it is oil, gold, EURUSD, the Dow, or the Hang Seng.  It is also a perfect example of why intraday traders need more than one screen to trade from, there’s so much going on to pay attention to.  First I’d like to say, I never trade an FOMC statement.  But it was spectacular to watch the reversal today after this bit of news, or non news, came out.  Today’s price action in most markets were quietly awaiting the FOMC decision, minus crude oil prices.  Oil had already dropped nearly $3 this morning when I turned on my computer.  Consequently, the US dollar was showing signs of resilience against the euro, yen, and aussie, after reaching new highs in the euro and aussie during Asia last night.  That spike last night certainly caught my eye, creating some serious negative divergences in those pairs today.  Putting all this together I was starting to guess that the dollar was starting to reach some sort of bottom, if only temporary.  So after the 2:15pm FOMC decision and price spike, (look how beautiful the double tops in EURUSD and AUDUSD!) it was not too surprising to watch the Dow also spike up, but all of these stalled after just 20-30 minutes and the US dollar came back strong to lead the EURUSD, AUDUSD, and the Dow down in a big way.  The Dow made a 160 point swing to close -81 points down.  Nice volatility, just like the old days.  There has been quite alot of talk about the US dollar being the new carry trade, and that is probably why we have not seen “normal” market correlation with the dollar and the yen, and oil, in respect to the Dow.  My good old trading strategy of Dow/yen correlation has not worked for many months now, but just selling the greenback against anything has been the trade of the year.  Wouldn’t it be interesting now if we see more dollar strength, ushering in some risk aversion?  Did the Dow get close enough to the magical 10,000 level (she hit 9906 today during the FOMC spike) for sellers to get in the game?  Are the institutional traders back and in the swing of moving this market??  So many questions, so many pips.  Good trading.

USDJPY perfect neckline test for further downside

The USDJPY made a perfect bounce and test of the neckline at 96.50, an excellent entry for shorts looking to cash in on the large head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart.   Price is currently testing an important support at 94.50, historically an important level.  Beyond that, 93.60 and 92.40 are the next supports to target before the final target at 89.50.  Meanwhile price also still remains in the newly formed down channel, and if price continues downward inside this channel it will take all summer to reach the final target.  Of course, with the US dollar in such bearish sentiment currently,  it is likely that the USDJPY will break down through the lower channel line more quickly.  All eyes are definitely watching the action on the dollar, many economists and the like have been waiting for dollar weakness to kick in in a big way ever since the US government’s stimulus actions, bank bailout, and essentially dollar printing should impact dollar based currencies profoundly.  Today’s release of the FOMC minutes from last month’s meeting again prompted more dollar selling when the news showed the Fed is not against additional buying up of treasuries, a sure-fire way to kill the currency.  Best bet for us currency traders:  sell the dollar, sell the dollar big.  Good trading.

Daily USDJPY

EWI ponders the question: are successful forex traders just lucky?

Elliott Wave International (EWI) yesterday in their newsletter revisited a question that many have asked since the dawn of time:  Are successful forex traders just really lucky?  In their article they recount the Alan Greenspan comment made at an economic forum back in 2004 in which he stated

“My experience is that exchange markets have become so efficient that virtually all relevant information is embedded almost instantaneously in exchange rates to the point that anticipating movements in major currencies is rarely possible.
”…Despite extensive efforts on the part of analysts, to my knowledge, no model projecting directional movements in exchange rates is significantly superior to tossing a coin. I am aware that of the thousands who try, some are quite successful. So are winners of coin-tossing contests.
Could it be that Mr. Greenspan was just trying to throw us all off track,  I have always thought that he and all Fed Reserve Chairmen secretly trade their very own forex account in their spare time.  But of course forex traders are lucky!!  Most of them, some of them, have figured out how to make unbelievable profits during good times and bad.  Personally, I do not subscribe to the Elliott Wave school of thought, but many traders do, and they certainly profit from it.   I have mentioned this before but no matter what trading methodology, strategy, system, or coin toss you use, the ONLY way to successfully make money in forex is to employ good money management rules and skills each and every trade.  That way you will be stacking the odds in your favor of ending the week and month and the year on top and in the green.  It is that simple.

Big news this week to move the forex markets

Key economic news this week is the highlight for forex traders looking for profits.  On Thursday the ECB is expected to cut its interest rates by 0.50% to an all time low level of 1.00%.  Most traders agree that this news is already priced into the market which has seen a Euro weakening against the USD since its major strengthening one week ago, hitting 1.3700 levels.  It is interesting that the EURUSD pair has come to rest today near the brand new monthly pivot at 1.3150, very near the 50% fibonacci retracement of the move up last week.    Today’s ADP employment data came out much worse than expected, which may be a clue to this Friday’s Non Farm Payroll data.  As I have stated before I like to trade the yen pairs as they tend to follow the Dow index.  The past two weeks we have seen very nice rallies in the Dow and S&P, both have tested the very important levels of 7900 and 830 respectively.   I suspect that Friday’s NFP may be the market mover that could help currencies break out of their current consolidating levels.  USDJPY, for example is consolidating in a large triangle formation with the top resistance near 99.50.   But my bias for both the Dow and for the yens remains bearish, I would be surprised to see the Dow break above 7900 for any sustained period, yet.  Time will tell, pips will fall.  Good trading.

Behold the power of the Fed

The US Fed announced its next bold strategy in its efforts to stem the US and global economic slide Wednesday afternoon, flinging the USD to the wind.  In its announcement the government plans to purchase up to $300 billion of long-term U.S. Treasury securities in the next few months and hundreds of billions of dollars more in mortgage-backed securities, bringing total expenditure from $750B to $1.25 trillion.  Immediately the currency markets reacted by selling USD off hard, bringing EURUSD up 350 points to 1.3500 levels, not seen since early January.  Why did the market sell the USD?  Because with US Fed funds rate near 0%, means that the US is printing dollars as fast as it can in order to keep this boat afloat.  More dollars in the world, means they are worth less.  SELL SELL SELL !  Trading during the announcment is highly risky but now that the news is out, what can we learn about today’s price action?  Looking at the weekly EURUSD chart, a nice double bottom appears to be in place at 1.2500.  Price today reached the weekly 200ema, technically a very important moving average.  It will be important to see where this week ends in respect to this 200ema.  Connecting the tops at 1.6000 and 1.4700 brings that trendline near the 61.8% fibonacci retracement of the recent down move, now at 1.3850.  Before price can reach this level, the 50% fibo retracement sits at 1.3585 near the daily 200ema.  Will the markets like the Fed’s move enough to continue the Dow index moving positively and weakening the USD, that is the question.  But if so, then I suspect the 1.3850 level will be possible in the next few weeks.   This potential move is still considered a retracement unless and until that trendline breaks near 1.3850.  Look for pull backs and enter longs as the market dictates.

USD is back

Wowie, ranging market for summer?  I think not!  As soon as oil hit that high at $146/barrel and began its retrace, the US dollar flexed its muscle and has not looked back since.  The past two weeks have been nothing but strong US dollar versus everything else:  Euro, British pound, Aussie dollar, yen, you name it.  Now the GBPUSD is at 22 month lows.  What has caused this fierce turn around?  If you pay any attention to the fundamentals you will note that several news items have come out of Europe and Britain showing worsening inflation data just like the US has been showing the past year.  And when Mr. Trichet spoke last week describing potential for no more interest rate hikes coupled with the possibility that the US Fed may need to hike rates by end of this year, that fueled the fire to buy buy BUY US dollars all around the globe.  These past two weeks I have witnessed 1000 pip moves in my favorite pair, GBPJPY and also GBPUSD.  Lovely day trading as long as you can enter on an up swing and ride price down til it exhausts for quick pips.  So now the question is:  HOW LONG WILL THIS LAST?  So often I have seen fast and hard down moves like this so that the longer term time frames, technically, can catch a breather and start their slow march back upward again.  Fundamentally it is hard to tell, but technically there are clues that the market gives us retail traders.  The GBPUSD broke its massive weekly head & shoulders pattern at 1.9400 neck line, and the target for this pattern goes all the way down to 1.7500 area.  That is still another 1000 pips down from current price.  But I am expecting some retracement this week, since prices cannot sustain these extreme moves without one.  So any retraces up I will be looking to short again until some futher info comes out to tell me to stop.  Good trading!