Weekly GBPUSD: a precarious position

A spectacular and somewhat surprising run up for the GBPUSD this week after weeks of weakness may have caught many traders off guard who were still holding short trades.  The reason for this giant 400 pip move is still allusive, it may have simply been a hardy short squeeze to rattle the shorts, as there was not significant fundamental news that caused this move.  But now that the weekly candle has closed, there are some important price levels to note for planning next week.  Firstly, the psychologically important 1.6000 was left far behind in the tracks of this up move, this level may now hold support again.  Remember how the GBPUSD remained for weeks and weeks inside the 1.6000-1.7000 range, price may again bounce about here for some time.  Second, price did reach the 38.2% retracement from the low at 1.3600 to the high at 1.7000, at 1.5700.  So there is potential now for a continuation in that up move.  However, if you fib from 1.6750 to the recent low of 1.5700, price now is sitting pretty at the 61.8% retracement at 1.6380.   So if this surprise up move was just a short squeeze, then this current price level would be perfect for the shorts to re-engage.  The clue may just be the weekly CCI indicator included on the attached chart:  it is curving up at the 50 line, a sign that the up move may indeed be real.  Have I confused everyone??  Yes, yes, too many points here perhaps.  For me, I will be looking for opportunities to go long now until that strategy stops working.  For example, if price closes back below 1.6000 then I will likely return to a shorting strategy.  Good luck and good trading.

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