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Gold and AUD ready to retrace?
Dollar strength was the story today, pulling risk currencies and commodities off their highs, most notably AUDUSD and EURUSD, gold and oil. I have attached a daily chart of AUDUSD to make note of the beautiful double top accompanied by the negative divergence showing very prominently on the CCI indicator. Is this a signal after yesterday’s doji and today’s subsequent fall that more retrace is in the works? It will be more apparent once price revisits this very important trend line which has been in control since the March low, now seen at about 0.9100, the weekly pivot. I will be playing the shorts by selling the rallies as long as 0.9310 holds resistance. Typically with this CCI divergence I like to target the daily 50ema, but since it is quite a bit below the trendline, I will likely take profit nearing the trendline until and unless this trendline is actually broken. This is a contra trade since the trend is still very much up, so stops will be tight. Price may very well fall to this trendline and then reverse again to go higher. 0.9301 is 61.8% of today’s range, an excellent entry but the daily pivot at 0.9272 may also hold. Let’s see how Asia sets up. Good luck and good trading.

The FX Hustle described, or “kids, do not try this at home”
To all my aspiring, smart, pip-hungry newbie forex traders out there: READ THIS ARTICLE posted in the Financial Times this week. It describes a point by point IPO offering by GAIN Capital, or forex.com, a prominent market maker in the world of forex brokers, and just how they make money from the thousands, the tens of thousands of new investor/traders that are entering the forex trading world month after month. There are two very important points to take away from this article. First, GAIN Capital is a dealing desk broker, meaning, they take the other side of their clients’ trades, creating a very obvious conflict of interest. Compare to an ECN (electronic communication network) which is like an interbank broker, simply matching up trades immediately with other banks on their network. Most profitable traders that I know prefer ECNs to dealing desk brokers because they just do not trust a broker that is basically trading against you. The second and maybe the most important takeaway from this article is this: “Our customer base is primarily comprised of individual retail customers who generally trade in the forex market with us for short periods…” and “…If we are unable to maintain or increase our customer retention rates or generate a substantial number of new customers in a cost-effective manner, our business, financial condition and results of operations and cash flows would likely be adversely affected. For the year ended December 31, 2008, we incurred sales and marketing expenses of $29.3 million.” So, these brokers, all brokers, are willing to spend $30 million dollars on sales and advertising in order to get the newbie retail customers, the ones who are likely to jump into the market and under capitalize while over leveraging their trading accounts, and then quickly and quietly over trade and lose their entire account in a matter of months. This is why we see so many advertisements for “Low spreads, $50 to open an account, START TRADING NOW”. They depend on these type of newbie traders for their bread and butter. This is precisely why it is so important to start your trading account with at least $5,000, but $10,000 is much better. Otherwise the volatility in this market will eat your account alive. Do not be a broker’s delight, do not over leverage, give yourself the advantage by allowing plenty of room for the volatility to work IN YOUR FAVOR. The brokers will hate you, and you will love it. Cheers.
Brilliant market selling to end the week and month
The rollercoaster market that we forexers crave returned this week and the putrid whiff of fear is again wafting through both Wall Street and Main Street. The big news of the week was released yesterday with the US Gross Domestic Product release at 0830am, spawning a fresh load of buying and pushing the Dow up 199 points, the GDP data did slightly surprise to the upside to 3.5%. This after three days of a moderate slide in stocks, and continued dollar weakness. After yesterday, traders were excited that price action would likely continue up and up, at least for a time. Friday brought in the sellers. The important level to watch is 2712 on the Dow, which was September’s close. But with the -250ish point fall, the monthly Dow candle will be quite a nice wick and doji. Why all the selling today? Could be the consumer data today showing spending fell in September now that Cash for Clunkers in finished. This may be the beginning of truth coming out in the numbers as the economic stimulus wears, afterall jobless rate continues high and people here just cannot sustain the go-go-go spending that kept the US humming for so long. The jobless data next Friday will be big, either way. Question is, was today’s selling only end of month profit taking or the beginning of something much bigger? Meanwhile, I was happy to snag about 100 pips on the GBPJPY today, selling. Here is something to consider: The daily GBPJPY certainly points to further downside, but even with today’s action the weekly GBPJPY is still neutral to buy. Check it out: The 5ema has crossed the 8sma back down on the daily chart, indicating further selling. But the 5ema crossed the 8sma upward last week on the weekly chart and will close this week firmly in control. Lets see if we can get a drop to the 146 region to begin buying this pair again, near the 61% retracement, looking for a return to 155.00 and maybe even 162.00 level. Good luck.


Weekly GBPJPY chart
How’s your batting average?
I am not a baseball fan. I am a New Yorker. These two statements are mutually exclusive and cannot be uttered aloud on the streets of New York during these final moments of the post season play as the NY Yankees play the LA Angels tonight to secure their 40th World Series, far more times than any other baseball team, ever. They are pretty awesome. Even I have Yankee fever. I have likened forex traders to poker players before, but a forex trader can certainly also be compared to a baseball player, especially when it comes to the hitting, and maybe even more so. It is astounding the amount of statistics held on each of these hitters: percentage of hits for each time at bat, percentage of hits when against a lefty pitcher, percentage of hits against a righty pitcher, home runs per at bat, runs batted in, on base percentage… and on and on and on. So when Alex Rodriguez approaches home plate and he is sporting a .285 batting average it is fairly easy to guess that he may hit during this time at bat. Let’s compare how batting stats can be attributed to trading. Its all about probabilities and helping your confidence. I keep my weekly and monthly percentage of winning trades and my weekly and monthly profit ratio. But if you trade more than one strategy then it is important to track each strategy separately. You may be profiting 80% of the time using your intraday trend following strategy, and profiting 65% of the time using an intraday contra trading strategy. Similarly you may be profiting 71% of the time using a swing trading strategy. Or, if you trade more than just one session per day, you should track those separately also. For example, you may be 79% winning trades during the NY session and only 54% winning during Asia trading. Hey, this is fun, let’s not stop there! Do you trade more than one currency pair? Then you gotta track those separately too. You may find that you are 52% winning on the EURJPY trades but 86% on the EURUSD trades. How about percentage of trades reaching ultimate profit target vs. trades hitting break even or an early taking of profit. Do you trade NFP each month and how’s that working out for you? Certainly each week and month varies as we move through different cycles of the year. I thought I was already being thorough with my statistics on my trading but this baseball thing has got me thinking… I have some more work to do. In the meantime, GO YANKEES!
Stress free New York session: avoiding econ news trades
It is often said that patience is the hardest thing to master for traders, but it is truly your ace in the hole to wait for the right entry and then wait some more for your profit target to be reached. As I have mentioned, I am an intraday forex trader: I get up around 06:30am New York time to start my trading day. I am rarely in overnight trades. I decided early in my trading career that patience was hard for me, so the quicker intraday trades made more sense for my style. But the noise associated with the smaller time frames of intraday trading, especially around economic news releases can be stressful and easier to make mistakes. My favorite days to trade the New York session are when there is little or no economic news releases scheduled. When there is no news to move the market, then the market looks more to the overall technical bias for its direction. Mondays are typically non econ release days, and since it is the start of the week, it is a good bet that the previous week’s bias will continue on a Monday. On average there are two days during any given week that will not contain economic news during the New York session. I can usually pick off about 50 pips on each of those days on the GBPJPY trading the prevailing trend. If you can have the patience to not trade unless it is a non news day, averaging 100 pips per week ain’t bad. I went back and reviewed my non news day trades for the past 3 months and I have shown 94% profitable trades just on those. Remember, this thing of forex trading is not a sprint, but a marathon of patience and emotion-free execution of your strategy. Taking some stress out of the mix could certainly help to keep you on track and avoid the noise of the news. Good trading!
Weekly GBPUSD: a precarious position
A spectacular and somewhat surprising run up for the GBPUSD this week after weeks of weakness may have caught many traders off guard who were still holding short trades. The reason for this giant 400 pip move is still allusive, it may have simply been a hardy short squeeze to rattle the shorts, as there was not significant fundamental news that caused this move. But now that the weekly candle has closed, there are some important price levels to note for planning next week. Firstly, the psychologically important 1.6000 was left far behind in the tracks of this up move, this level may now hold support again. Remember how the GBPUSD remained for weeks and weeks inside the 1.6000-1.7000 range, price may again bounce about here for some time. Second, price did reach the 38.2% retracement from the low at 1.3600 to the high at 1.7000, at 1.5700. So there is potential now for a continuation in that up move. However, if you fib from 1.6750 to the recent low of 1.5700, price now is sitting pretty at the 61.8% retracement at 1.6380. So if this surprise up move was just a short squeeze, then this current price level would be perfect for the shorts to re-engage. The clue may just be the weekly CCI indicator included on the attached chart: it is curving up at the 50 line, a sign that the up move may indeed be real. Have I confused everyone?? Yes, yes, too many points here perhaps. For me, I will be looking for opportunities to go long now until that strategy stops working. For example, if price closes back below 1.6000 then I will likely return to a shorting strategy. Good luck and good trading.
Forget China, time to move to Australia
Something really unprecidented would have to happen to get me to pack up my lovely Manhattan apartment and move out of the United States. But it is no secret that the once super power of the 1950s to the 1990s is certainly on the decline while emerging market countries such as China, Brazil, India, and Russia are coming into their own. I enjoy listening to investor gurus such as Jim Rogers discuss his reasoning behind why he moved himself and his family from New York to Singapore in 2007 and how it was the best decision he ever made. I mean, as I am quite comfy sitting here and trading and enjoying an American life, aren’t my hard-earned pips in my USD account slowly losing value against most other major currencies? Yes. But the thought of moving to China or Brazil or Russia gives me a little shiver of uncertainty. This week we learned just how strong Australia is, being the first of the major Central Banks to emerge from interest rate holding and actually RAISE their rates .25% to 3.25%. Their Aussie dollar jumped in correspondence to this surprise move, ending the week above 0.9000. I suspect the AUD may again reach for parity with the USD soon and even overtake the not-so-mighty dollar. This would alas not be new territory, the AUD was stronger than the dollar in the 1980s. Australia also posted an improving jobless rate to 5.7%, compared to the US’s continuing worsening in unemployment, now at 9.8%. Times are turning quicker down under. What, not too interested in shrimps on the barby? How about Canada. Canada, too, posted its second consecutive month of improving employment data this week adding 31,000 jobs in September, bringing its unemployment down to 8.7%. They have yet to raise their interest rates but I suspect that they will quicker than the US does. What do these two nations have in common? Both the AUD and the CAN dollars are commodity currencies: Australia is closely tied to gold while Canada is tied to oil. While commodities like these will only continue to rise in value, it is the main reason why countries that export these products will continue to grow. Unfortunately, the US is the consumer, not the producer, and thus will likely remain in a weakening state. Oh how fun fundamental analysis is! Some US traders are moving their savings to Canada in order to take advantage of a stronger currency. Australia is a good bet too. It is not too late. Even better: you do not have to move to take advantage of the weakening US dollar. Check out Everbank, you can open a savings account in several emerging market currencies without hassle or airline tickets.
Trading naked
Ever hear about naked trading? It ain’t what it sounds like. “Naked” trading is the medthod of using candlestick price charts without all the indicators: no MACD, no or very few moving averages, no stochastics, just price — pure and simple. Price is king, and when you have the courage to take all the flim flam of indicators away you can actually see what is occurring to price much easier. Afterall, technical indicators are all lagging indicators, and while they can help the trader in different ways, if you can dumb down your charts to the bare minimums, life and trading can actually get easier, especially for beginners, because many tech indicators can confuse the situation. When I trade naked, eh hum, I still plot my trendlines. Trendlines are my most important thing to have on the charts, price is attracted and repelled by these lines, perfect for entries and exits. Trading naked really forces the trader to learn what the candlestick patterns are telling him, since there isn’t much else to look at. Attached is a 5minute USDJPY chart that I trading this evening during Asia open. USDJPY remains in a very strong down trend for months now, important to know the overall trend before drilling down to less than a 1 hour chart. As the Asia session got going, it is easy to see how price respected this minor supporting trendline for many candles, about an hour. I waited for a break of this line to enter a short trade on this pair. This was a very typical break, then retrace up, then break and break of the last low. Entry was at 89.40 and a stop placed above this line at 89.60. In just 30 minutes I was able to book 30 pips. I like to look for wicks to confirm hesitations in price. Here is a great site to hone your candlestick pattern skills at www.babypips.com. Good trading.

End of the month and quarter
The end of the month and the quarter today certainly provided the typical market volatility that often comes with such significant endings. Profit taking came in in a big way after lackluster ADP report and Chicago PMI data, giving strength to the dollar, especially once traders realized that the GDP data was a bit better than expected. Today I was lucky: I noticed that the GBPUSD pair had risen strongly in both the Asian and London sessions with no retracement, it is very rare to see one pair rise in all three sessions, so I figured this should be a nice short opportunity. But three equally compelling reasons supporting shorts were these: price on the hourly GBPUSD chart came to hesitate perfectly at the 200ema, which was also the weekly pivot point, which was also the 50% retracement of the recent down move from 1.6460 to 1.5750: all at 1.6120. Too perfect. I knew that there was quite a bit of econ news coming out in the next few minutes, but I made the decision to enter short at the close of the 8am hourly candle which closed as a doji. I decided to try for 100 pips initially. Sure enough, as ADP news came out, my short kicked into high gear. The GDP data being dollar positive also helped my trade, and the poorer than expected Chicago PMI is what was really got the overall markets into a selling mode. I figured that end of the quarter would be a take profit day most likely. It only took two hours before my +100 pips profit was hit. All in all, it was a good month of trading: +758 pips total, 77% winners, 2.6 profit factor. Again this month I only traded GBPJPY and GBPUSD. Time to check the monthly candles closing today to see how it looks going forward. Hmmmmm, red candles, and both pairs closed monthly below their 5emas. Down continuation is expected. Good trading!

Jennifer Shotts

Casey Stubbs has been trading for 14 years. He started trading in the stock market and moved to Forex.
Richard draws from his extensive experience trading to write insightful trading articles for both fundamental and technical analysis.
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